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Nieuws | Are we heading for a housing crisis?

Are we heading for a housing crisis?

Are we heading for a housing crisis?

Housing costs are taking an increasing bite out of our disposable income. Experts warn that without action, the situation could turn into a real housing crisis. But how did we get to this point, and what trends are playing a role? Below are the main trends.

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Buying a house: an almost impossible task for young people

It is harder than ever for young people under 30 to buy a house. The share of young buyers has fallen from 34% in 2019 to just 29.7% today. Rising interest rates and stricter bank conditions make it almost impossible to borrow the full purchase amount. Banks often require an equity contribution of at least 10%, excluding notary fees and registration fees. In addition, loans increasingly take into account energy costs and the property's EPC score.

The decline in property transactions illustrates this trend. In 2023, there was a 17% drop, with another 7% in the first half of 2024. Young people are therefore more likely to opt for 25- or even 30-year loans, putting further pressure on house prices. Although some young people can rely on family support, the barrier has become insurmountable for many.

Rental market under pressure: less mobility, more demand

The inaccessibility of owner-occupied properties means tenants stay in their homes longer. This leads to a vicious circle of less available rental housing and skyrocketing demand. In 2023, 30 per cent fewer rental contracts were signed, despite demand only increasing. In urban areas, estate agents sometimes receive hundreds of viewing requests for a single rental property.

Interestingly, rents are not rising excessively despite the high demand. Many landlords prefer reliable tenants to the risk of non-payment. Still, the situation is dire, especially for people in urgent need of housing.

Demographic changes and an ageing population complicate the housing market

Demographic shifts are having a significant impact on the housing market. More single people, divorced couples and an ageing population mean that more housing is needed for the same population. At the same time, many elderly people live in unadapted housing in less favourable locations.

Ageing also raises policy questions. A large proportion of the elderly population lives in housing that is unsuitable for their needs, while there is insufficient vision to free up this housing for younger families. This contributes to the inefficient use of the available housing stock.

Small investors are leaving the market

Small investors, who traditionally manage 95% of the rental market, are increasingly withdrawing. High renovation costs, mounting regulatory obligations and rising overheads make real estate less attractive. Many are now turning to alternatives such as government bonds and savings accounts.

Still, the number of people with multiple properties remains stable for now. Figures show that almost 900,000 Belgians own two or more homes. However, the growth of this segment seems to be slowing down, which may further increase pressure on the rental market.

New construction and renovations stagnate

The supply of new housing is not increasing. The number of building permits has fallen by almost 30 per cent over the past three years. The number of permits for renovations has also fallen by almost 23%. Existing houses are often built in inefficient locations, such as ribbon development, rather than in urban cores.

Although statistically there is room for more housing according to regional plans, a clear vision is lacking. Experts argue for more focus on optimising the existing housing stock, rather than further expansion.

Social housing falls short

The shortage of social housing is glaring. In Flanders, more than 176,000 people were on the waiting list at the end of 2022, while only 167,000 social housing units are available. Vacancy and limited building policies exacerbate the problem. Although renovations have increased, structurally too few new social housing units are being built.

Conclusion: what now?

The Belgian housing market is at a tipping point. Young people are struggling to buy, tenants are stuck, and demographic trends are exacerbating the pressure. Experts argue for a more integrated approach: from optimising existing housing to encouraging new construction in the right locations. Without a coordinated policy, the gap between supply and demand only risks widening.

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